NFL Tiptoes Around Slippery Prediction Market Slope

Sports fans can’t watch a game these days without seeing a flood of betting commercials and supplementary wagering information. It was something major sports leagues tried to disassociate from for decades, before eventually giving into the revenue they could receive by leaning into it.

The NFL was no different in that regard, but they are taking a very cautious approach when it comes to the tangentially related prediction markets.

With an all-out betting blitz in early February before the Super Bowl, the NFL made an important official statement about the options their players have to participate in prediction markets.

“NFL players may not own a stake,” said chief NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy.

McCarthy made this statement after the announcement that NBA superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo was a shareholder of one of the most prominent prediction market companies, Kalshi.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is investing in Kalshi, but will have restrictions.

Kalshi says the Bucks superstar will be forbidden from trading on markets related to the NBA in accordance with its terms of service.

— Front Office Sports (@FOS) February 7, 2026

The NFL isn’t just keeping a tight leash on their players with regards to prediction market involvement or ownership. As of right now, it seems like the league is doing everything it can to avoid being linked with the burgeoning industry.

“We are particularly troubled that several sports-related futures contracts have been launched nationwide, including in jurisdictions where sports betting has not been legalized,” said NFL Executive Vice President Jeff Miller.

Reports also indicated that the NFL prohibited prediction market commercials from being aired during the Super Bowl, which continued a policy the league enforced throughout the regular season and the playoffs.

Miller didn’t permanently close the door on the NFL being involved with prediction markets one day but was firm that they would do their due diligence.

“There’s no question that we’re going to be spending a lot of time talking about this in the coming months, and maybe even years. But our principles are going to remain the same,” he said.

There are different sentiments about whether prediction markets are here to stay, and if they do have longevity, what form they might take moving forward.

Business Insider’s Emily Stewart posited that prediction markets are the belle of the ball now but could face trouble down the road.

She wrote, “Prediction markets are having a moment, not because they’ve solved forecasting or finance, but thanks to a legal workaround and a deluge of marketing money. That combination has fueled rapid growth and breathless valuations, but it’s built on a narrow, unstable foundation that could crumble once regulations catch up or if bettors decide the value proposition is less compelling than advertised.”

Prediction markets are relying on sports-adjacent topics to flourish at the present time. It’s estimated that 90% of Kalshi’s total trading volume is on sports.

ESPN’s David Purdum has covered the sports gambling landscape for decades, and detailed the NFL’s about-face when it decided to embrace sports betting once it became legal in the late 2010’s.

In Super Bowl coin-flip betting, Tails has attracted approximately twice as many big bets ($10,000+) as Heads at @CaesarsSports.

Angle shooters.

— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) February 7, 2026

“It’s amazing,” Purdum said on an NPR podcast. “It’s a complete 180. They were—talked about how the legalization of sports betting just in New Jersey would irreparably harm the integrity of the league. And now they’ve embraced it. They have multiple sportsbook partners—MGM, Caesars, FanDuel, DraftKings.”