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Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted presidential elections for the past forty years. In 2016, he accurately predicted Trump would win and was correct again in predicting a Biden win for the 2020 presidential election. Lichtman makes his predictions using a ’13 Keys’ system, which he invented with the help of Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981. The Keys to the White House is a list of thirteen true or false statements about the presidential campaigns. The keys ask questions about things like policies, the economy, military success, social unrest, scandals, and charisma.
According to Lichtman, Biden holds five keys. Lichtman granted Biden keys for having a strong economy, no social unrest, military success, and significant policy changes such as the Investment and Jobs Act. Biden also won keys for an incumbency advantage and not having a significant third-party challenger. This year, the election forecaster believes Biden is in the lead and will likely win the 2024 election.